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IB Math AA HL Past Paper Analysis 2021–2025

Marks-weighted analysis of 405 questions across 3,809 marks from 17 IB Math AA HL exam sittings — with topic weightage, P1/P2/P3 splits, official grade boundaries, and Photon Academy's predictions for May 2026.

New · Live 6 Predicted Paper Sets for May 2026 — sets 1–2 free Open Now
405
Questions Analysed
3,809
Total Marks
17
Exam Sittings
5
Years of Data
Methodology: When a question carries multiple topic tags, its marks are distributed equally among the tags. For example, a 12-mark question tagged "Functions" and "Differentiation" contributes 6 marks to each. This prevents double-counting and gives a true picture of what the exam actually tests by marks.

Topic Weightage by Marks

Percentage of total exam marks allocated to each topic across all 17 sittings, marks distributed among tags to avoid double-counting.

Paper 1 vs Paper 2 — Where Each Topic Lives

Some topics are overwhelmingly tested on one paper. This chart shows the marks split.

Marks Share — Top 10 Skill Areas

The "Functions" Tag is Misleading

Of 56 questions tagged "Functions", only 23 are purely about functions (inverse, composite, transformations). The rest overlap with calculus, trig, or algebra — those marks belong to the other topic.

Year-over-Year Trends

How topic weightage has shifted from 2021 to 2025 (% of marks per year).

Which Topics Carry the Most Weight Per Question?

Average marks per question — higher means the topic appears more often as a big Section B question.

What Stands Out

Five years of data, six findings worth memorising before May 2026.

Biggest Topic

Vectors = 10.4% of all marks

The single largest topic by marks. Almost always a standalone 15–20 mark Section B question. Reliable, predictable, high-weight — see our Vectors cheatsheet.

Rising Fast

Functions: 6.9% → 10.6%

Functions marks share has grown 53% from 2021 to 2025. IB is testing functional reasoning (rational, composite, inverse) more and more.

P1 Exclusive

Complex Numbers: 10.3% of P1

But only 1.8% of P2. Complex numbers is almost exclusively a Paper 1 topic — and it dominates Q12 (the hardest question).

P2 Exclusive

Statistics: 8.3% of P2

But only 1.9% of P1. Normal/binomial distribution and regression are almost entirely confined to the calculator paper.

Declining

Trig dropped 7.8% → 4.2%

Basic trigonometry marks share halved between 2021 and 2025. Less emphasis on trig equations and identities as standalone topics.

New in 2025

Financial Math appeared

3 questions on compound interest and depreciation for the first time, cross-linked with Maclaurin series — a new IB approach to applied math.

May 2026 Predictions — Math AA HL

Paper 1 Section B (~54 marks)

Paper 2 Section B (~55 marks)

Style — post-Nov 2024 shift

  • ~50% of sub-parts will be "Show that"
  • Sub-parts average 2–3 marks (more scaffolding)
  • Entry points are trivial: "Write down" for [1]
  • More real-world contexts with given diagrams

Watch These Topics

  • Sequences & Series: Rising 2.9% → 6.0% — due for a big question
  • Maclaurin Series: Avg 16 marks per question — always Section B
  • Financial Math: New in 2025, likely continues
  • Trig declining: Less standalone, more embedded

Paper 3 — Extended Investigation Analysis

HL only. 2 questions, 55 marks, 1 hour. The most unique and unpredictable paper.

Paper 3 Topic Map (2020 Specimen – 2025 November)

YearQ1 TopicQ1Q2 TopicQ2Key Techniques
2020 SpecInscribed/circumscribed polygons → approximate π30Chebyshev polynomials fn(x) = cos(n arccos x)25Trig identities, Maclaurin, limits, recurrence
2021 Mayfn(x) = xn(a−x)n — explore, differentiate, generalise31Roots of unity — product of distances24GDC exploration, complex numbers, induction proof
2022 MayPolygonal numbers (triangular, square, pentagonal)27Cubics — tangent, complex roots28Number theory, induction, Argand diagram, inflection
2024 MayProduct rule special case: (fg)' = f'g'24Randomly generated quadratics — P(x-intercepts)31Differential equations, discriminant, counting, normal dist
2025 MayProbability generating functions G(t)23Curvature k(x) = |f''|/(1+(f')²)^{3/2}32PGFs, derivatives, L'Hôpital, circles, implicit diff
2025 Nov TZ1Normals to curves y = k²/x26Wolf population — Logistic vs Gompertz29Differential equations, Euler's method, model comparison
2025 Nov TZ3Composed trig: cos((n+1)arccos x)26Maclaurin for arctan → approximate π29Induction, IBP, alternating series, GDC verify

Paper 3 — Topic Categories

Paper 3 — Recurring Techniques

Pattern

Q1 = Pure, Q2 = Applied

Q1 is almost always a pure mathematical investigation (functions, geometry, number theory). Q2 tends toward applied modelling (population, probability, physics-like contexts).

Always Present

GDC Exploration → Prove

Every Paper 3 follows the same arc: use your calculator to explore specific cases, spot the pattern, then prove it algebraically. "Suggest" and "Hence show that" are signature command terms.

Shift in 2024–25

Q2 Got Bigger

Q2 marks increased from 24–25 (2020–21) to 29–32 (2024–25). The applied/modelling question is becoming the dominant question on Paper 3.

IB Grade Boundaries — Math AA HL

Official IB grade boundaries as percentages. Source: published IB Grade Boundary documents.

Grade 7 Boundary Over Time (% required)

Full Grade Boundary Table — Math AA HL (All Sessions 2021–2025)

SessionG1G2G3G4G5G6G7
N25 TZ30122435496375
N25 TZ10132434496478
M25 TZ30132435496478
M25 TZ20132431445972
M25 TZ10122436466072
N24 TZ00101930445973
M24 TZ20101930445974
M24 TZ10142435486476
N23 TZ20132434496274
M23 TZ20102131435770
M23 TZ10132434496475
N22 TZ00101627445973
M22 TZ20101828395265
M22 TZ1071524375165
M21 TZ2041224385369
M21 TZ1041324364963

Source: Official IB Grade Boundary documents. Some 2023–2024 values estimated where data is incomplete — verify with your IB coordinator if needed.

Grade 7

63%–78% range for a 7

HL Grade 7 boundary ranged from 63% (May 2021 TZ1, COVID) to 78% (Nov 2025 TZ1 & May 2025 TZ3). Average across all sessions: 72.5%.

Grade 5

43%–49% gets you a 5

HL Grade 5 requires roughly 45% of marks. Achievable by mastering Section A and getting entry marks on Section B.

Prediction

May 2026: ~72–76% for Grade 7

Post-COVID boundaries stabilised at 72–78%. With the guided Nov 2024+ style, expect ~73% for May 2026 — the 5-year HL average.

Photon AA HL Predicted Papers — May 2026

Six full predicted paper sets written by Photon Academy in IB exam style. Each set has Paper 1 (no calc), Paper 2 (calc) and Paper 3 (extended investigation) with full markschemes. Sets 1 and 2 are free. Sets 3–6 unlock with Math Resources lifetime access.

Set 1Free
Set 2Free
Set 3Lifetime
Set 4Lifetime
Set 5Lifetime
Set 6Lifetime

Open the Predicted Papers viewer to read sets 1–2 in your browser, side-by-side with markschemes. Sets 3–6 unlock automatically once you have Lifetime Library access for AA HL.

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One-time SGD 99 — every Notes, Tutorial, Solutions PDF, the topical question bank and all 6 predicted paper sets. Lifetime access.

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