IB Math Past Paper Analysis · 2021–2025
IB Math Paper Analysis 2021–2025: Trends, Grade Boundaries & 2026 Predictions
By Mr. Ejaz | May 2026 · 735 questions analysed across 35 sittings
By Mr. Ejaz | May 2026 · 735 questions analysed across 35 sittings
Over the last 18 months we've gone through every IB Math AA HL and AA SL paper from May 2021 to November 2025 — 735 exam questions across 6,769 marks and 35 sittings — and tagged each one by topic, paper, mark allocation and command-term style. This article is the executive summary of what we found, why it matters for IB Math tuition in Singapore, and what we expect for May 2026.
Most "IB Math past paper analysis" you'll find online counts how often a topic appears. That's misleading. A 2-mark "Write down the derivative of ex" and a 20-mark Section B Vectors question both count as one question — but they tell you wildly different things about what the exam actually tests.
Our analysis is marks-weighted. When a question covers two topics — say, Functions plus Differentiation — its marks are split evenly between them. That prevents double-counting and gives a true picture of where the marks actually live.
The full interactive charts (eight of them) live on our IB Math AA HL past paper analysis page and the corresponding AA SL analysis page. This article picks out the findings that have actually changed how we deliver IB Math tuition at Photon Academy.
Out of 22 distinct topics in the AA HL syllabus, five account for nearly 40% of all exam marks. Here they are in order:
The single largest AA HL topic. Almost always a standalone 15–20 mark Section B question in Paper 1 OR Paper 2. The patterns repeat: dot product → angle, cross product → area/normal, lines and planes → intersection or distance. If a student is shaky on vectors at the start of Year 6, that's our first priority.
The biggest mover. Five years ago Functions sat alongside Trigonometry; today it has overtaken it. Why? IB is testing functional reasoning more — inverse, composite, rational, transformations — instead of pure manipulation. Most "Functions" questions also fold in calculus, which is why we treat the two as a single tutoring block.
All the rules, but heavier on the harder ones — implicit differentiation, logarithmic differentiation, related rates. Pure curve-sketching has dropped off in favour of differentiation embedded inside larger questions.
Down from 7.8% in 2021 to 4.2% in 2025. Standalone trig identities and equations are dying. But trig as a servant topic — supporting Complex Numbers, Vectors, Integration — is bigger than ever. Compound angle and ASTC are still must-knows; obscure identities can be safely deprioritised.
The classic Paper 1 Q12 staple. De Moivre's theorem, nth roots of unity, conjugate-pair properties. Very rare on Paper 2 (only 1.8% of P2 marks). If you walk into Paper 1 without complex numbers cold, you're conceding 16–20 marks before you start.
The single most actionable finding from the analysis: five topics are radically uneven across Paper 1 and Paper 2. If you know which paper they live on, you can stop wasting revision time.
So when our students sit a P1 mock, we know complex numbers, advanced trig and adv. differentiation should appear. When they sit P2, expect normal distribution, regression, differential equations and applied integration. We weight tutorial sets accordingly.
A five-year trend analysis surfaces the patterns IB is moving towards:
↑ Rising: Functions (6.9 → 10.6%), Sequences & Series (2.9 → 6.0%), Probability distributions, Financial Math (brand new in 2025).
↓ Falling: Basic trig (halved 7.8 → 4.2%), standalone Polynomials, simple curve sketching, pure manipulation questions.
Stylistic shift since Nov 2024: "Show that" sub-parts now make up ~50% of Section B. Sub-parts are shorter (2–3 marks each, more scaffolding). Entry points are deliberately easy ("Write down…" for 1 mark). More real-world contexts with diagrams provided. IB is rewarding method exposition more than ever.
HL-only. 2 questions, 55 marks, 1 hour. Everybody fears it. After analysing every Paper 3 from the 2020 specimen through to November 2025 (7 papers in total), three patterns are unmistakable:
Three techniques appear in every Paper 3 we've analysed: mathematical induction, "conjecture from a pattern", and GDC exploration. If a student has those three drilled, Paper 3 stops being a coin-flip.
Every IB-Math-AA-HL student we've taught has asked some version of "what mark do I need for a 7?" The answer varies session-to-session, but the five-year picture is now clear:
AA HL Grade 7: 63%–78% range. Average 72.5%. Post-COVID stabilised at 72–78%.
AA HL Grade 5: 43%–49% range. Average 45%. Achievable by mastering Section A and grabbing entry marks on Section B.
AA SL Grade 7: 63%–80% range. Average 74.4%. Slightly wider variance than HL.
The takeaway: a student who reliably gets 73% of total marks is on track for a 7 in AA HL. That's the working target we set for May exam students, with bigger buffers for November sittings (boundaries tend to drift up by 2–3 points).
See the full 16-row grade boundary table on the analysis page for every individual session 2021–2025.
Predictions are predictions — IB can always break pattern. But based on five years of marks data and the post-Nov-2024 stylistic shift, these are the bets we'd take for May 2026 AA HL:
Paper 1 Section B (~54 marks):
Paper 2 Section B (~55 marks):
We've written six full IB-style predicted paper sets for AA HL (P1 + P2 + P3) and AA SL (P1 + P2) based on this analysis. Sets 1–2 are free for everyone who signs in — see predicted papers. Sets 3–6 are bundled with Math Resources lifetime access.
We ran the same analysis on AA SL — 330 questions across 18 sittings, 2,960 marks. The shape is genuinely different:
The full SL breakdown — sub-topic chart, calculus deep-dive, grade boundaries, May 2026 predictions — lives on the AA SL paper analysis page.
The most important thing this analysis has changed isn't what we teach — the syllabus is the syllabus — it's how we weight time. Six practical examples:
We built an interactive IB Math topic map from the connection data. Bubble size = how often the topic appears; lines between bubbles = how often the two topics appear in the same exam question. The strongest links:
What this tells students: revising in isolation is inefficient. If you study Complex Numbers, you must brush up Trig identities the same week. If you study Functions, you'll see Differentiation again two days later. The topic map visualises this — click any bubble to open the free cheatsheet.
Mr Ejaz at Photon Academy teaches IB Math AA HL & SL in Singapore using exactly the weighting above. Small groups of 4, IBO-certified, 95%+ score 6–7. From $480/month.