Sub-Topics Calculus Syllabus Mix Predictions Grade Boundaries Predicted Papers
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IB Math AA SL Past Paper Analysis 2021–2025

Marks-weighted analysis of 330 questions across 2,960 marks from 18 IB Math AA SL exam sittings — sub-topic breakdown, calculus deep-dive, official grade boundaries, and Photon Academy's predictions for May 2026.

New · Live 6 Predicted Paper Sets for May 2026 — sets 1–2 free Open Now
330
Questions Analysed
2,960
Total Marks
18
Exam Sittings
5
Years of Data
Methodology: Every question from 37 IB Math AA SL papers (Paper 1 and Paper 2) across 18 exam sittings has been analysed. Marks are allocated to the 5 IB syllabus topics. When a question spans multiple topics, marks are distributed equally to prevent double-counting.
SL Paper Structure: Paper 1 — 80 marks, 90 minutes, no calculator. Paper 2 — 80 marks, 90 minutes, calculator required. Total: 160 marks per sitting. No Paper 3 at SL.

What IB Actually Tests — Sub-Topic Breakdown

23 distinct sub-topics ranked by % of total marks. Colour-coded by syllabus topic — this is the chart that matters most for revision planning.

Calculus Dominates — 27.7% of All Marks

The top 4 sub-topics are ALL calculus. Here's how those marks break down.

Calculus Sub-topics

Calculus: P1 vs P2

Optimization and kinematics are heavier on P2 (calculator). Differentiation basics are heavier on P1 (no calculator).

5 Syllabus Topics — Overview

The 5 broad IB syllabus topics and their marks share.

Marks Share by Topic

Paper 1 vs Paper 2

Section B Appearances by Topic

How often each topic appears as a big question (13–16 marks). Calculus dominates with 18 Section B appearances across 37 papers.

Year-over-Year Trends

Stats & Trig — Sub-topic Deep Dive

Breaking down the other high-weight topics into their tested components.

Statistics & Probability Sub-topics

Geometry & Trig Sub-topics

What Stands Out

Five years of SL data, six findings worth memorising before May 2026.

Biggest Topic

Calculus dominates at 27.7%

Over a quarter of all marks. Optimisation and integration are the most tested skills, appearing as Section B questions in nearly every paper. See our Differentiation and Integration cheatsheets.

Paper Split

Stats is P2-heavy

23% of P2 marks vs 18% of P1. Normal distribution and regression appear almost exclusively on the calculator paper. See Probability Distributions.

Consistent

Trig steady at ~19%

Geometry & Trigonometry holds at roughly 19% every year. Sine/cosine rule and arc/sector problems appear in virtually every sitting — see our Trigonometry cheatsheet.

Every Paper

Sequences in every sitting

Arithmetic and geometric sequences (AP/GP) appear in virtually every exam sitting. A reliable, high-frequency topic — see Sequences & Series.

Declining

Functions dropping: 17% → 14%

Functions share has declined over the 5-year window. Less standalone function questions — increasingly embedded within calculus problems.

Style Shift

Post-2024 guided format

More "show that" sub-parts, smaller mark allocations per part, and more accessible entry points. Same structural shift observed at HL.

May 2026 Predictions — Math AA SL

Paper 1 Section B (~45 marks)

  • Q7 [~14]: Calculus — differentiation, optimisation or kinematics
  • Q8 [~15]: Sequences OR Statistics
  • Q9 [~16]: Functions + Calculus combined

Paper 2 Section B (~45 marks)

  • Q7 [~14]: Statistics — normal + binomial OR regression application
  • Q8 [~15]: Trig modelling OR 3D geometry / bearings
  • Q9 [~16]: Calculus — optimisation OR kinematics with integration

Style — post-Nov 2024 shift

  • ~50% of sub-parts will be "Show that"
  • Accessible entry: "Write down" for [1]
  • Real-world contexts throughout both papers
  • Diagrams given as context for geometry/trig

Watch These Topics

  • Optimisation: Appears in nearly every paper
  • Kinematics: Reliable Section B calculus application
  • Normal distribution: Always on P2, often paired with binomial
  • Arc/sector: Tested every session, often early Section A

IB Grade Boundaries — Math AA SL

Official IB grade boundaries for SL. Source: published IB Grade Boundary documents.

Grade 7 Boundary Over Time (% required)

Full Grade Boundary Table — Math AA SL (All Sessions 2021–2025)

SessionG1G2G3G4G5G6G7
N25 TZ3031323536780
N25 TZ1071728435870
M25 TZ30102133486277
M25 TZ2031023395470
M25 TZ1071725385265
N24 TZ2071725385265
N24 TZ10101930445976
M24 TZ2081830445975
M24 TZ10102133486479
N23 TZ2091729435775
N23 TZ10112134516479
M23 TZ20101931436076
M23 TZ1091728425672
N22 TZ00142434486175
M22 TZ20112134496377
M22 TZ1081830445973
M21 TZ204919344663
M21 TZ104915294563

Average G7: 74.4%. Average G5: 44.5%. Source: Official IB Grade Boundary documents.

Grade 7

63%–80% range for a 7

SL Grade 7 ranged from 63% (May 2021, COVID) to 80% (Nov 2025 TZ3). Average: 74.4%. Post-COVID normal: 70–79%.

Grade 5

29%–53% gets a 5

Average Grade 5 boundary is 44.5%. Roughly 45% of total marks — achievable by mastering Section A.

Prediction

May 2026: ~72–76% for Grade 7

Boundaries normalised at 70–79% post-2022. With the more guided style, expect ~74% for May 2026.

Photon AA SL Predicted Papers — May 2026

Six full predicted paper sets written by Photon Academy in IB exam style. Each set has Paper 1 (no calc) and Paper 2 (calc) with full markschemes. Sets 1 and 2 are free. Sets 3–6 unlock with Math Resources lifetime access (same SKU as AA HL — one purchase covers both).

Set 1Free
Set 2Free
Set 3Lifetime
Set 4Lifetime
Set 5Lifetime
Set 6Lifetime

Open the Predicted Papers viewer to read sets 1–2 in your browser, side-by-side with markschemes. Sets 3–6 unlock automatically once you have Lifetime Library access for AA SL.

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One-time SGD 99 — every Notes, Tutorial, Solutions PDF, the topical question bank and all 6 predicted paper sets for both AA HL and AA SL. Lifetime access.

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Predicted Paper · Side-by-Side

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