Marks-weighted analysis of 330 questions across 2,960 marks from 18 IB Math AA SL exam sittings — sub-topic breakdown, calculus deep-dive, official grade boundaries, and Photon Academy's predictions for May 2026.
New · Live 6 Predicted Paper Sets for May 2026 — sets 1–2 free Open Now23 distinct sub-topics ranked by % of total marks. Colour-coded by syllabus topic — this is the chart that matters most for revision planning.
The top 4 sub-topics are ALL calculus. Here's how those marks break down.
Optimization and kinematics are heavier on P2 (calculator). Differentiation basics are heavier on P1 (no calculator).
The 5 broad IB syllabus topics and their marks share.
How often each topic appears as a big question (13–16 marks). Calculus dominates with 18 Section B appearances across 37 papers.
Breaking down the other high-weight topics into their tested components.
Five years of SL data, six findings worth memorising before May 2026.
Over a quarter of all marks. Optimisation and integration are the most tested skills, appearing as Section B questions in nearly every paper. See our Differentiation and Integration cheatsheets.
23% of P2 marks vs 18% of P1. Normal distribution and regression appear almost exclusively on the calculator paper. See Probability Distributions.
Geometry & Trigonometry holds at roughly 19% every year. Sine/cosine rule and arc/sector problems appear in virtually every sitting — see our Trigonometry cheatsheet.
Arithmetic and geometric sequences (AP/GP) appear in virtually every exam sitting. A reliable, high-frequency topic — see Sequences & Series.
Functions share has declined over the 5-year window. Less standalone function questions — increasingly embedded within calculus problems.
More "show that" sub-parts, smaller mark allocations per part, and more accessible entry points. Same structural shift observed at HL.
How well candidates actually performed on each topic, session by session. Synthesised from 15 official IB examiner subject reports (M22–N25).
| Topic | M22 T1 | M22 T2 | N22 | M23 T1 | M23 T2 | N23 T1 | N23 T2 | M24 T1 | M24 T2 | N24 T1 | N24 T2 | M25 T1 | M25 T2 | M25 T3 | N25 T3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Functions | Well | Mixed | Well | Well | Poor | Mixed | Well | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Poor |
| Differentiation | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Well | Poor | Well | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Well | Poor | Poor | Poor |
| Integration | Poor | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Poor |
| Trigonometry | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Well | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Poor |
| Sequences & Series | Well | Well | Well | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Well | Well | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed |
| Probability | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Mixed | Well | Poor | Poor |
| Statistics | Mixed | Mixed | Well | Poor | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Well | Well | Mixed | -- | Mixed | Poor |
| Binomial Theorem | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Poor | Poor | Poor | -- | -- | Mixed | Mixed | Well | Poor | Well | -- |
| Exponents & Logarithms | -- | -- | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Mixed | Poor | Poor | Poor | -- | Mixed | Poor |
| Modelling | Poor | -- | Poor | Mixed | Well | -- | -- | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Mixed | Poor | -- |
Ratings synthesised from examiner commentary across 15 IB Math AA SL subject reports (May 2022 – Nov 2025). "Well" = examiners noted strong candidate performance; "Poor" = a common area of difficulty.
The ten mistakes IB examiners flag most often across five years of Math AA SL reports — fix these before May 2026.
By far the most-cited fault: rounding intermediate values too early, or giving answers to 2 s.f. or decimal places instead of the required 3 significant figures. Keep at least 5 s.f. in working and use GDC storage between parts.
Trigonometric work done in degrees when radians were intended (or vice-versa), producing impossible answers — e.g. in sector-area and modelling questions. Always check the mode before a trig question.
Treating dependent events as independent and multiplying probabilities, assuming events are mutually exclusive, ignoring the intersection term in P(A∪B), or misapplying conditional probability to give values above 1.
Omitting the absolute value of velocity when integrating for distance travelled, using t=0 instead of v=0 for ‘at rest’, and substituting t into the derivative rather than integrating with initial conditions.
Starting from the given result instead of deriving it independently — which earns no marks — and ignoring ‘hence’ links between parts. Show clear, sufficient steps for every ‘show that’ and ‘prove’ task.
Attempting long analytic methods (roots, derivatives at a point, means from a table, inequalities) where the GDC solver or graph would be faster and more accurate, then losing marks to avoidable slips.
Substituting x into the tangent equation instead of the derivative to find a slope, applying the power rule without the chain rule, confusing quotient and power rules, and giving a tangent as l=… not the required y=… form.
Not evaluating the final expression, omitting the constant of integration, or leaving unsimplified surds, fractions and logs (e.g. √(12/0.75), log₂32) — costing the final accuracy or answer mark.
Writing asymptotes as a number or ‘h.a.=’ instead of the equation y=…, using calculator/computer notation as a final answer, incorrect interval/inequality notation, and dropped brackets when squaring or subtracting.
Applying logs to individual terms, e.g. ln(2x−6)=ln2x−ln7, writing log₂2³ as p³ rather than 3p, not recognising log1=0 or the change-of-base rule, and mishandling e⁰ and exponential-model rate constants.
Official IB grade boundaries for SL. Source: published IB Grade Boundary documents.
| Session | G1 | G2 | G3 | G4 | G5 | G6 | G7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N25 TZ3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 53 | 67 | 80 |
| N25 TZ1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 43 | 58 | 70 |
| M25 TZ3 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 33 | 48 | 62 | 77 |
| M25 TZ2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 39 | 54 | 70 |
| M25 TZ1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 38 | 52 | 65 |
| N24 TZ2 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 38 | 52 | 65 |
| N24 TZ1 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 30 | 44 | 59 | 76 |
| M24 TZ2 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 44 | 59 | 75 |
| M24 TZ1 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 33 | 48 | 64 | 79 |
| N23 TZ2 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 43 | 57 | 75 |
| N23 TZ1 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 34 | 51 | 64 | 79 |
| M23 TZ2 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 31 | 43 | 60 | 76 |
| M23 TZ1 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 42 | 56 | 72 |
| N22 TZ0 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 34 | 48 | 61 | 75 |
| M22 TZ2 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 34 | 49 | 63 | 77 |
| M22 TZ1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 44 | 59 | 73 |
| M21 TZ2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 46 | 63 |
| M21 TZ1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 45 | 63 |
Average G7: 74.4%. Average G5: 44.5%. Source: Official IB Grade Boundary documents.
SL Grade 7 ranged from 63% (May 2021, COVID) to 80% (Nov 2025 TZ3). Average: 74.4%. Post-COVID normal: 70–79%.
Average Grade 5 boundary is 44.5%. Roughly 45% of total marks — achievable by mastering Section A.
Boundaries normalised at 70–79% post-2022. With the more guided style, expect ~74% for May 2026.
Six full predicted paper sets written by Photon Academy in IB exam style. Each set has Paper 1 (no calc) and Paper 2 (calc) with full markschemes. Sets 1 and 2 are free. Sets 3–6 unlock with Math Resources lifetime access (same SKU as AA HL — one purchase covers both).
Open the Predicted Papers viewer to read sets 1–2 in your browser, side-by-side with markschemes. Sets 3–6 unlock automatically once you have Lifetime Library access for AA SL.
Most AA HL topics overlap directly with the SL syllabus. These cheatsheets are free and printable.